Managing the judgmental probability elicitation process: a case study of analyst/manager interaction

Abstract

This paper presents an annotated transcript of an interview where a decision analyst elicited a judgmental probability distribution from a senior executive of a technology-based corporation. This case study illustrates the issues involved in interactions between analysts and managers. Judgmentally assessed probabilities are often used in situations with uncertainty where historical data does not provide a direct basis for determining probabilities. Thus, the interview is of direct interest to analysts and managers who must address situations with significant uncertainty. The paper also presents a new way of capturing information about how experts practice their expertise. A procedure involving videotaping and post-production processing was used by the decision analyst to reconstruct his thought processes during the interview. This approach shows promise of providing an effective way of capturing expertise for the development of computer-based expert systems.>

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