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Managing the judgmental probability elicitation process: a case study of analyst/manager interaction
10 references·6 citing·36 second hop
Managing the judgmental probability elicitation process: a case study of analyst/manager interaction (1994)Managing the judgmental probability elici…The magical number seven, plus or minus two: Some limits on our capacity for processing information. (1994)The magical number seven, plu…Eliciting probabilities from experts in complex technical problems (1991)Eliciting probabilities from …Guided self-elicitation of decision analyst expertise (1990)Guided self-elicitation of de…Rational choice in an uncertain world (1988)Rational choice in an uncerta…Quantifying judgmental uncertainty: Methodology, experiences, and insights (1987)Quantifying judgmental uncert…An Assessment of Decision Analysis (1980)An Assessment of Decision Ana…The Foundations of Decision Under Uncertainty: An Elementary Exposition (1976)The Foundations of Decision U…Exceptional Paper—Probability Encoding in Decision Analysis (1975)Exceptional Paper—Probability…The Foundations of Decision under Uncertainty: An Elementary Exposition (1964)The Foundations of Decision u…The magical number seven, plus or minus two: Some limits on our capacity for processing information. (1956)The magical number seven, plu…The impact of innovation failure: Entrepreneurship adversity or opportunity? (2023)The impact of innovation fail…A comparison of two methods for expert elicitation in health technology assessments (2016)A comparison of two methods f…Probability Elicitation Under Severe Time Pressure: A Rank‐Based Method (2015)Probability Elicitation Under…Beyond lucky: measuring and modelling the impact of ‘probability control’ on risky choice (2014)Beyond lucky: measuring and m…Coordinating dispersed product development processes: A contingency perspective of project design and modelling (2009)Coordinating dispersed produc…Perspective on Decision Analysis Applications (2007)Perspective on Decision Analy…Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability (1973)On the psychology of prediction. (1973)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)Norm theory: Comparing reality to its alternatives. (1986)Ambiguity and self-evaluation: The role of idiosyncratic trait definitions in self-serving assessments of ability. (1989)Uncertainties in risk analysis: Six levels of treatment (1996)The Tao of Physics (1975)Behavioral Decision Theory (1977)FORMAL MODELS VS. HUMAN SITUATIONAL UNDERSTANDING: INHERENT LIMITATIONS ON THE MODELING OF BUSINESS EXPERTISE (1982)A disaggregation algorithm for the optimization of stochastic planning models (1997)How Effective Are Decision Analyses? Assessing Decision Process and Group Alignment Effects (2007)Judgment under Uncertainty (1982)Judgment under uncertainty: Causality and attribution (1982)Decision analysis and behavioral research (1986)Uncertainty in probabilistic risk assessment (1996)Illustration of Sampling‐Based Methods for Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis (2002)A practical guide to structured expert elicitation using the IDEA protocol (2017)Experts In Uncertainty (1991)Response rates to mail surveys published in medical journals (1997)Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities (2006)EXPERIMENTAL PSYCHOLOGY (1940)Working Memory (1974)The earth is round (p < .05). (1994)Trust in Schools: A Core Resource for Improvement (2002)Prosocial Behavior: Multilevel Perspectives (2004)A scaling method for priorities in hierarchical structures (1977)How to make a decision: The analytic hierarchy process (1990)The theory of planned behavior (1991)Decision Analysis Applications in the Operations Research Literature, 1970–1989 (1991)Aggregating Probability Distributions (2007)Eliciting Probabilities from Experts (2007)The Strategy of Ambiguity: Uncertainty and Electoral Competition (1972)The So-Called Allais Paradox and Rational Decisions under Uncertainty (1979)Feature Article—Decision Analysis: An Overview (1982)Preference structures and their numerical representations (1999)A Subjective Spin on Roulette Wheels (2003)
this work references cited by second hop

References

  • 1956The magical number seven, plus or minus two: Some limits on our capacity for processing information.17,773 cited
  • 1994The magical number seven, plus or minus two: Some limits on our capacity for processing information.17,161 cited
  • 1988Rational choice in an uncertain world1,292 cited
  • 1975Exceptional Paper—Probability Encoding in Decision Analysis663 cited
  • 1991Eliciting probabilities from experts in complex technical problems309 cited
  • 1976The Foundations of Decision Under Uncertainty: An Elementary Exposition278 cited
  • 1964The Foundations of Decision under Uncertainty: An Elementary Exposition210 cited
  • 1987Quantifying judgmental uncertainty: Methodology, experiences, and insights177 cited
  • 1980An Assessment of Decision Analysis110 cited
  • 1990Guided self-elicitation of decision analyst expertise2 cited

Cited by

  • 2016A comparison of two methods for expert elicitation in health technology assessments59 cited
  • 2023The impact of innovation failure: Entrepreneurship adversity or opportunity?32 cited
  • 2015Probability Elicitation Under Severe Time Pressure: A Rank‐Based Method31 cited
  • 2007Perspective on Decision Analysis Applications31 cited
  • 2009

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Coordinating dispersed product development processes: A contingency perspective of project design and modelling
11 cited
  • 2014Beyond lucky: measuring and modelling the impact of ‘probability control’ on risky choice0 cited