Article1988

Effect of Feedback on Base-Rate Utilization

Stephan T. Lindeman · Wulfert P. van den Brink · Johan Hoogstraten

46 citations0/0 files storedPerceptual and Motor Skills

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Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Clinical Reasoning and Diagnostic Skills Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference

Abstract

The effect of direct training with feedback on a base-rate problem of the engineers-lawyers type is assessed. Analysis indicates that feedback leads to adjusted probability estimates closer to the Bayesian norm than those in the no-feedback training-only condition. For a second base-rate problem (the so called “divorce problem”), however, no effect of training was shown, even though thinking-aloud protocols for this problem showed that subjects mentioned base-rates more often in the feedback than in the no-treatment condition.

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References

1973On the psychology of prediction.1981Human Inference: Strategies and Shortcomings of Social Judgment.1976New directions in attribution research 2018New Directions in Attribution Research 1983The use of statistical heuristics in everyday inductive reasoning.1980Base rates can affect individual predictions.1984Social roles and strategies in prediction: Some determinants of the use of base-rate information.

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