Strategic foresight: matching environmental uncertainty

Abstract

This paper explores how strategic decision-makers select and use foresight practices and techniques for handling environmental uncertainty. Our research is based on a multiple-case study of corporate organisations that recently faced major changes in their external environment and increasing turbulence. We expand our understanding of environmental uncertainty by defining the concept of ‘boundary uncertainty’, which regards the identity of the components of the business (micro) environment. We distinguish between ‘continuous’ and ‘discontinuous’ drivers of change and find that they entail different requirements for the design and implementation of strategic foresight actions.

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