Is a Change in the Renminbi Exchange Rate in China's Interest?

Abstract

This paper reviews the controversy over China's exchange rate regime. Placing the issue in the context of the literature on exit strategies, it argues that the best time for China to exit from its peg is now while capital is flowing in and there is a tendency for the rate to appreciate. In contrast, waiting to exit until sentiment has turned around would be problematic. In addition, moving now to a managed float would help the Chinese authorities to gain better control of domestic credit conditions. The principal objections to this recommendation (viz., the banking system is weak, many state enterprises are loss making, and the capital account is not sufficiently open) are unconvincing. Finally, the impact on other countries is likely to be more complex and varied than suggested by other analyses.

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