The Strategic and Tactical Value of Commodity Futures

Claude B. Erb · Campbell R. Harvey

1,037 citations0/0 files storedFinancial Analysts Journal

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Financial Markets and Investment Strategies Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling Market Dynamics and Volatility

Abstract

Investors face numerous challenges when seeking to estimate the prospective performance of a longonly investment in commodity futures. For instance, historically, the average annualized excess return of the average individual commodity futures has been approximately zero and commodity futures returns have been largely uncorrelated with one another. The prospective annualized excess return of a rebalanced portfolio of commodity futures, however, can be "equity-like." Some security characteristics (such as the term structure of futures prices) and some portfolio strategies have historically been rewarded with above-average returns. It is important to avoid naive extrapolation of historical returns and to strike a balance between dependable sources of return and possible sources of return.

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References

1993Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds 1964CAPITAL ASSET PRICES: A THEORY OF MARKET EQUILIBRIUM UNDER CONDITIONS OF RISK*1997On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance 1992The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns 1965The Valuation of Risk Assets and the Selection of Risky Investments in Stock Portfolios and Capital Budgets 1975THE VALUATION OF RISK ASSETS AND THE SELECTION OF RISKY INVESTMENTS IN STOCK PORTFOLIOS AND CAPITAL BUDGETS**This paper is another in a series of interrelated theoretical and statistical studies of corporate financial and investment policies being made under grants from the Rockefeller Foundation, and more recently the Ford Foundation, to the Harvard Business School. The generous support for this work is most gratefully acknowledged. The author is also much indebted to his colleagues Professors Bishop, Christenson, Kahr, Raiffa, and (especially) Schlaifer, for extensive discussion and commentary on an earlier draft of this paper; but responsibility for any errors or imperfections remains strictly his own.[Professor Sharpe's paper, “Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions of Risk” (Journal of Finance, September 1964) appeared after this paper was in final form and on its way to the printers. My first section, which parallels the first half of his paper (with corresponding conclusions), sets the algebraic framework for sections II, III and VI, (which have no counterpart in his paper) and for section IV on the equilibrium prices of risk assets, concerning which our results differ significantly for reasons which will be explored elsewhere. Sharpe does not take up the capital budgeting problem developed in section V below.]n.d.A model of investor sentiment /1998A model of investor sentiment1We are grateful to the NSF for financial support, and to Oliver Blanchard, Alon Brav, John Campbell (a referee), John Cochrane, Edward Glaeser, J.B. Heaton, Danny Kahneman, David Laibson, Owen Lamont, Drazen Prelec, Jay Ritter (a referee), Ken Singleton, Dick Thaler, an anonymous referee, and the editor, Bill Schwert, for comments.1

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