Fast Construction of Surrogates for UQ Central to DDDAS– Application to Volcanic Ash Transport1

Abstract

In this paper, we present new ideas to greatly enhance the quality of uncertainty quantification in the DDDAS framework. We build on ongoing work in large scale transport of geophysical mass of volcanic origin – a danger to both land based installations and airborne vehicles. The principal new idea introduced is the concept of a localized Bayes linear model as a surrogate for the expensive simulator. Probability of ash presence is compared to earlier work.

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