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Estimating the probability of negative events
16 references·16 citing·31 second hopsampled
Estimating the probability of negative events (2008)Estimating the probability of negative ev…The influence of outcome desirability on optimism. (2007)The influence of outcome desi…Principles of Forecasting (2001)Principles of ForecastingMeta-Analytic Procedures for Social Research. (1994)Meta-Analytic Procedures for …From subjective probabilities to decision weights: The effect of asymmetric loss functions on the evaluation of uncertain outcomes and events. (1994)From subjective probabilities…Meta-Analytic Procedures for Social Research (1991)Meta-Analytic Procedures for …Venture Theory: A Model of Decision Weights (1990)Venture Theory: A Model of De…Contextual effects in the interpretations of probability words: Perceived base rate and severity of events. (1990)Contextual effects in the int…Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk (1988)Prospect theory: An analysis …Ambiguity and uncertainty in probabilistic inference. (1985)Ambiguity and uncertainty in …Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. (1984)Judgment Under Uncertainty: H…Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (1982)Judgment under uncertainty: H…Source credibility in social judgment: Bias, expertise, and the judge's point of view. (1979)Source credibility in social …Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk (1979)Prospect Theory: An Analysis …Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability (1973)Availability: A heuristic for…Stated Expectations as Functions of Probability and Desirability of Outcomes (1953)Stated Expectations as Functi…Probability-Preferences in Gambling (1953)Probability-Preferences in Ga…Overconfidence and narcissism among the upper echelons: a systematic literature review (2020)Overconfidence and narcissism…The Oxford Handbook of Experimental Semantics and Pragmatics (2019)The Oxford Handbook of Experi…Quantification (2019)QuantificationA pessimistic view of optimistic belief updating (2016)A pessimistic view of optimis…Trust: An Integrative Review from a Person–Situation Perspective (2015)Trust: An Integrative Review …Source Credibility and the Biasing Effect of Narrative Information on the Perception of Vaccination Risks (2015)Source Credibility and the Bi…Optimism Biases (2015)Optimism BiasesWhat Does It Mean to be Biased (2014)What Does It Mean to be BiasedEcologically rational choice and the structure of the environment. (2014)Ecologically rational choice …Improbable outcomes: Infrequent or extraordinary? (2013)Improbable outcomes: Infreque…To what extent do politeness expectations shape risk perception? Even numerical probabilities are under their spell! (2012)To what extent do politeness …The perceived functions of linguistic risk quantifiers and their effect on risk, negativity perception and decision making (2012)The perceived functions of li…Predicting vaccination using numerical and affective risk perceptions: The case of A/H1N1 influenza (2012)Predicting vaccination using …Losses loom more likely than gains: Propensity to imagine losses increases their subjective probability (2012)Losses loom more likely than …Communicating environmental risks: Clarifying the severity effect in interpretations of verbal probability expressions. (2011)Communicating environmental r…Wishful Thinking about the Future: Does Desire Impact Optimism? (2009)Wishful Thinking about the Fu…Belief in the law of small numbers. (1971)Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness (1972)On the psychology of prediction. (1973)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974)Telling more than we can know: Verbal reports on mental processes. (1977)Statistical principles in experimental design. (1962)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)The use of statistical heuristics in everyday inductive reasoning. (1983)Norm theory: Comparing reality to its alternatives. (1986)Errors and mistakes: Evaluating the accuracy of social judgment. (1987)Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms (1961)The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice (1981)Exploration and Exploitation in Organizational Learning (1991)Explicating dynamic capabilities: the nature and microfoundations of (sustainable) enterprise performance (2007)Theory of games and economic behavior (2019)Efficacy of the Theory of Planned Behaviour: A meta‐analytic review (2001)The benefits of being present: Mindfulness and its role in psychological well-being. (2003)Calculating and reporting effect sizes to facilitate cumulative science: a practical primer for t-tests and ANOVAs (2013)The Elaboration Likelihood Model of Persuasion (1986)Ethical Decision Making by Individuals in Organizations: An Issue-Contingent Model (1991)Differences between entrepreneurs and managers in large organizations: Biases and heuristics in strategic decision-making (1997)Experimental practices in economics: A challenge for psychologists? (2000)Word of mouth communication within online communities: Conceptualizing the online social network (2007)Media legitimacy and corporate environmental communication (2008)Those Who Understand: Knowledge Growth in Teaching (1986)Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty (1992)The weirdest people in the world? (2010)Expert Opinions in Forecasting: The Role of the Delphi Technique (2001)Consensus measurement in Delphi studies (2012)Rethinking Partial Least Squares Path Modeling: In Praise of Simple Methods (2012)A meta-analytic test of intergroup contact theory. (2006)
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References

  • 1979Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk48,459 cited
  • 1988Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk32,475 cited
  • 1973Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability9,980 cited
  • 1984Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.5,656 cited
  • 1991Meta-Analytic Procedures for Social Research4,635 cited
  • 1994Meta-Analytic Procedures for Social Research.4,249 cited
  • 1982Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases3,643 cited
  • 2001Principles of Forecasting1,178 cited
  • 1985Ambiguity and uncertainty in probabilistic inference.817 cited
  • 1979Source credibility in social judgment: Bias, expertise, and the judge's point of view.509 cited
  • 1990Venture Theory: A Model of Decision Weights337 cited
  • 2007The influence of outcome desirability on optimism.287 cited
  • 1953Stated Expectations as Functions of Probability and Desirability of Outcomes281 cited
  • 1953Probability-Preferences in Gambling258 cited
  • 1990Contextual effects in the interpretations of probability words: Perceived base rate and severity of events.229 cited
  • 1994

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From subjective probabilities to decision weights: The effect of asymmetric loss functions on the evaluation of uncertain outcomes and events.
226 cited

Cited by

  • 2015Trust: An Integrative Review from a Person–Situation Perspective259 cited
  • 2011Communicating environmental risks: Clarifying the severity effect in interpretations of verbal probability expressions.138 cited
  • 2014Ecologically rational choice and the structure of the environment.135 cited
  • 2014What Does It Mean to be Biased133 cited
  • 2019The Oxford Handbook of Experimental Semantics and Pragmatics119 cited
  • 2016A pessimistic view of optimistic belief updating98 cited
  • 2012The perceived functions of linguistic risk quantifiers and their effect on risk, negativity perception and decision making81 cited
  • 2012Predicting vaccination using numerical and affective risk perceptions: The case of A/H1N1 influenza81 cited
  • 2009Wishful Thinking about the Future: Does Desire Impact Optimism?78 cited
  • 2012Losses loom more likely than gains: Propensity to imagine losses increases their subjective probability75 cited
  • 2013Improbable outcomes: Infrequent or extraordinary?73 cited
  • 2020Overconfidence and narcissism among the upper echelons: a systematic literature review63 cited
  • 2012To what extent do politeness expectations shape risk perception? Even numerical probabilities are under their spell!61 cited
  • 2015Source Credibility and the Biasing Effect of Narrative Information on the Perception of Vaccination Risks54 cited
  • 2019Quantification46 cited
  • 2015Optimism Biases43 cited