The Rural Rebound and Its Aftermath: Changing Demographic Dynamics and Regional Contrasts

Abstract

Data from the 2000 Census confirm that the 1990s were a period of renewed growth in rural America. Nonmetropolitan areas gained more than 5 million residents during the period, compared with less than 1.3 million during the 1980s. This “rural rebound” was fueled primarily by migration. Most migrants came from metropolitan areas, but rural areas also receive some immigrants from abroad. These widespread population gains represent yet another twist in the complex pattern of demographic change in rural America during the latter half of the 20th century. Population redistribution trends in the U.S. during this period were extremely fluid. Through most of the 20th century, nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) areas experienced modest population growth because the excess of births over deaths was sufficient to offset migration losses. The magnitude of the migration loss varied from decade to decade but the pattern was quite consistent: more people left rural areas than came to them. This changed abruptly in the 1970s when rural America experienced a remarkable demographic turnaround, with population gains in nonmetropolitan areas exceeding those in metropolitan areas for the first time in at least 150 years. The rural turnaround appeared to wane in the 1980s as widespread out migration and population decline reemerged. Rural demographic trends rebounded again in the 1990s. However, recent findings suggest that the rebound diminished in the late 1990s, adding yet another twist to the complex pattern of population change in rural America (Beale, 2000; Cromartie, 2001; Johnson, 2000). Research on nonmetropolitan demographic trends suggests that a process of selective deconcentration is occurring in the U.S., continuing a trend first evident during the nonmetropolitan turnaround of the 1970s (Frey & Johnson, 1998; Long & Nucci, 1997). Selective deconcentration refers to the spatial unevenness of rural population growth. Rural America is a big place, encompassing over 75 percent of the land area of the United States and 56 million people. Population

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