The Microfoundations of Mass Polarization

Abstract

Although there has been considerable attention to the question ofhow muchpolarization there is in the mass electorate, there has been much less attention paid to themechanismthat causes polarization. I provide evidence demonstrating the occurrence of individual-level conversion—individual Democrats and Republicans becoming more liberal and conservative. Although over the short term most of the observed changes are quite small and cannot be distinguished from measurement error, over time and many respondents, these movements aggregate to generate polarization. Small individual-level preference shifts provide an important foundation for aggregate polarization.

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