Measuring Disagreement in Qualitative Expectations

Frieder Mokinski · Xuguang Simon Sheng · Jingyun Yang

47 citations0/0 files storedJournal of Forecasting

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Forecasting Techniques and Applications Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Survey Methodology and Nonresponse

Abstract

We assess how well measures of disagreement in qualitative survey expectations reflect disagreement in corresponding quantitative expectations. We consider a variety of measures, belonging to two categories: measures of dispersion in nominal and ordinal variables and measures based on the probability approach of Carlson and Parkin (Economica, 1975; 42, 123–138). Using data from two household surveys that collect both qualitative and quantitative inflation expectations, we find that the probability approaches with time‐varying categorization thresholds and either a piecewise uniform or t distribution perform best and the resulting disagreement estimates are highly correlated with the benchmark. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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References

2002Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve 2004Measuring Expectations 2003Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters 2013Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data 2012What Can Survey Forecasts Tell Us about Information Rigidities?2007Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?2001Are Phillips Curves Useful for Forecasting Inflation?2003NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002

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