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The End of Moderate Inflation in Three Transition Economies?

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Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Global Financial Crisis and Policies Post-Communist Economic and Political Transition

Abstract

This paper examines the moderation of inflation in three transition economies, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland at the end of the 1990s. We argue that the institutions for the conduct of monetary policy in these countries were relatively weak and that monetary policy was unsupported by fiscal policy and hampered by multiple objectives. Using a VAR model of inflation, we show that, under a variety of assumptions, foreign prices and the persistence of inflation were the key determinants of inflation in these countries. From this finding we conclude that the moderation of inflation in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland was due largely to the decline in import prices from 1997 on, and thus it is likely be a temporary phenomenon.

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References

1990Inference in Linear Time Series Models with some Unit Roots 1998Detrending and business cycle facts 1992The power problems of unit root test in time series with autoregressive errors 1998Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Four Countries 1990Credible Disinflation with Staggered Price Setting 1997The Scope for Inflation Targeting in Developing Countries 1991Reconsidering ‘trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series’2020The Uncertain Unit Root in Real GNP

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2001Economic Reform, Democracy and Growth During Post-Communist Transition 2002Fiscal Explanations for Inflation: Any Evidence from Transition Economies?2007Measuring Central Bank Independence in Selected Transition Countries and the Disinflation Process

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