Climate, conflict, and social stability: what does the evidence say?

Solomon Hsiang · Marshall Burke

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Transboundary Water Resource Management Climate Change Policy and Economics Political Conflict and Governance

Abstract

Are violent conflict and socio-political stability associated with changes in climatological variables? We examine 50 rigorous quantitative studies on this question and find consistent support for a causal association between climatological changes and various conflict outcomes, at spatial scales ranging from individual buildings to the entire globe and at temporal scales ranging from an anomalous hour to an anomalous millennium. Multiple mechanisms that could explain this association have been proposed and are sometimes supported by findings, but the literature is currently unable to decisively exclude any proposed pathway. Several mechanisms likely contribute to the outcomes that we observe.

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References

2004Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach 2012Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century 2013Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict 2010Civil War 2013Temperature and the Allocation of Time: Implications for Climate Change 2009Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa 2010Temperatures and cyclones strongly associated with economic production in the Caribbean and Central America 2011Civil conflicts are associated with the global climate

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2014One effect to rule them all? A comment on climate and conflict 2021Security implications of climate change: A decade of scientific progress 2018Sampling bias in climate–conflict research 2016Tipping elements and climate–economic shocks: Pathways toward integrated assessment 2013What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature 2022The Climate Change Challenge: A Review of the Barriers and Solutions to Deliver a Paris Solution

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