Conflict, Climate, and Cells: A Disaggregated Analysis

Mariaflavia Harari · Eliana La Ferrara

413 citations0/0 files storedThe Review of Economics and Statistics

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Political Conflict and Governance Natural Resources and Economic Development Transboundary Water Resource Management

Abstract

We conduct a disaggregated empirical analysis of civil conflict at the subnational level in Africa over 1997 to 2011 using a new gridded data set. We construct an original measure of agriculture-relevant weather shocks exploiting within-year variation in weather and in crop growing season and spatial variation in crop cover. Temporal and spatial spillovers in conflict are addressed through spatial econometric techniques. Negative shocks occurring during the growing season of local crops affect conflict incidence persistently, and local conflict spills over to neighboring cells. We use our estimates to trace the dynamic response to shocks and predict how future warming may affect violence.

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References

2003Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War 1999GMM estimation with cross sectional dependence 1998On economic causes of civil war 2004Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach 2012Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century 2013Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict 2010Civil War 2009Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa

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2020Liberation Technology: Mobile Phones and Political Mobilization in Africa 2021Security implications of climate change: A decade of scientific progress 2013Drought and Civil War in Sub‐Saharan Africa 2015The local impact of typhoons on economic activity in China: A view from outer space 2014Climate shocks and political violence 2013What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature

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