Articlegreen2011

A flexible two-dimensional mortality model for use in indirect estimation

John R. Wilmoth · Sarah Zureick‐Brown · Vladimir Canudas‐Romo · Mie Inoue · Cheryl Sawyer

110 citations0/0 files storedPopulation Studies

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Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management Statistical Methods in Epidemiology demographic modeling and climate adaptation

Abstract

Mortality estimates for many populations are derived using model life tables, which describe typical age patterns of human mortality. We propose a new system of model life tables as a means of improving the quality and transparency of such estimates. A flexible two-dimensional model was fitted to a collection of life tables from the Human Mortality Database. The model can be used to estimate full life tables given one or two pieces of information: child mortality only, or child and adult mortality. Using life tables from a variety of sources, we have compared the performance of new and old methods. The new model outperforms the Coale-Demeny and UN model life tables. Estimation errors are similar to those produced by the modified Brass logit procedure. The proposed model is better suited to the practical needs of mortality estimation, since both input parameters are continuous yet the second one is optional.

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References

1992Modeling and Forecasting U. S. Mortality 1983Regional Model Life Tables and Stable Populations 1967Regional Model Life Tables and Stable Populations.1980The age pattern of mortality 1979A Competing‐Risk Model for Animal Mortality 1972Causes of death : life tables for national populations 2016Modeling and Forecasting 1998The force of mortality at ages 80 to 120

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