Article1980

The age pattern of mortality

595 citations0/0 files storedJournal of the Institute of Actuaries

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Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management Probability and Statistical Research Statistical Distribution Estimation and Applications

Abstract

The development of a ‘law of mortality’, a mathematical expression for the graduation of the age pattern of mortality, has been of interest since the development of the first life tables by John Graunt (1662) and Edmund Halley (1693). Although Abraham De Moivre proposed a very simple law as early as 1725 the best known early contribution is probably that of Benjamin Gompertz (1825). Since World War II mathematical formulae have been used to graduate sections of the English Life Tables, as well as assured lives mortality, and pensioner and annuitant mortality. Reviews of attempts at finding the ‘law of mortality’ have been given by Elston and Benjamin and Haycocks.

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1967Regional Model Life Tables and Stable Populations.

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2015Deciphering death: a commentary on Gompertz (1825) ‘On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality, and on a new mode of determining the value of life contingencies’2008Mortality Modelling and Forecasting: a Review of Methods 2002Applying Lee-Carter under conditions of variable mortality decline 2006Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review 1999The Long-Term Pattern of Adult Mortality and the Highest Attained Age 1989Forecasting Mortality: A Parameterized Time Series Approach 2008Stochastic population forecasts using functional data models for mortality, fertility and migration 1997Ever since gompertz

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