The value of simple models in new product forecasting and customer‐base analysis

Peter S. Fader · Bruce G. S. Hardie

35 citations0/0 files storedApplied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry

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Forecasting Techniques and Applications Consumer Market Behavior and Pricing Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting

Abstract

Abstract In this paper, we develop the idea of a ‘simple model’—defined as one that a good business student can build and implement on his/her notebook PC using readily available software. We explore how such models have the potential to bridge the gap between what marketing academics create and what marketing managers seek in a model. We provide specific examples from the areas of new product sales forecasting and customer‐base analysis, using spreadsheet‐based models that provide good forecasts and insights about actual buyer behaviour. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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References

2000On the Profitability of Long-Life Customers in a Noncontractual Setting: An Empirical Investigation and Implications for Marketing 1987Counting Your Customers: Who-Are They and What Will They Do Next?2000Building Models for Marketing Decisions 2005“Counting Your Customers” the Easy Way: An Alternative to the Pareto/NBD Model 1976Early Prediction of Market Success for New Grocery Products 1994Customer Base Analysis: An Industrial Purchase Process Application 1960Early Prediction of Market Success for New Grocery Products 1988Generalizing the NBD Model for Customer Purchases: What Are the Implications and Is It Worth the Effort?

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2014A review of forecasting models for new products 2014Solving the problems of new product forecasting

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