Containment or Engagement of China? Calculating Beijing's Responses

Abstract

that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is becoming a defining element in post-Cold War international politics, but there is much debate about what this entails and how the world should deal with an ascendant China. China’s rise and behavior are particularly bedeviling to the United States, but Beijing also poses substantial challenges to Asian and European nations as well as international regimes. Whether China will become a military threat to its neighbors, an adversary of the United States, a systemic challenge to the global order, or an cultural-ideological challenge to the West remain open questions.’ But China’s sheer size and growing power are already altering the contours of Asian security, international commerce, and the global balance of power. A robust debate is under way in Western and Asian nations about how best to deal with the awakened dragon. The uncertainties about China’s future capabilities and intentions, and the debate about alternative policy options, have spawned a lucrative cottage industry among analysts and pundits in academia, corporations, banks, governments, and the media worldwide. Analysts can reasonably estimate China’s economic and military power a decade or more hence based on its present and projected financial, technological and material resources. Far more difficult to predict is China’s internal political and social cohesion, and how Beijing will wield its new strength. Will China be a satisfied mature power or an insecure nounem riche power? Will it become a power at all? Will it flex its muscles or will they atrophy? Will China hold together or fall apart? Will its polity evolve liberally or revert to a dictatorial tyranny? Does Beijing seek regional hegemony or peaceful coexistence with its neighbors? Will the PRC play by the established rules of the international organizations and regimes, or does Beijing seek to undermine and change the rules and institutions? Do China’s leaders understand the rules and

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