Estimating the Mean and Variance of Subjective Distributions in PERT and Decision Analysis

Chad Perry · Ian D. Greig

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Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling Multi-Criteria Decision Making Probability and Statistical Research

Abstract

The original PERT formulae [5] employ the mode and endpoints to estimate the mean and standard deviation of subjective probability distributions. Though widely-used, they have met with criticism for their inaccuracy, and for their being limited to the beta distribution when there is no a priori reason why the distribution should be beta ([4], [6]). This note presents alternative, accurate and relatively distribution-free formulae for estimating the means and standard deviations of subjective probability distributions.

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References

1959Application of a Technique for Research and Development Program Evaluation 1975Cognitive Processes and the Assessment of Subjective Probability Distributions 1964An Analytical Study of the PERT Assumptions

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