Self‐Prophecy Effects and Voter Turnout: An Experimental Replication

Jennifer K. Smith · Alan S. Gerber · Anton Orlich

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Electoral Systems and Political Participation Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Psychology of Social Influence

Abstract

Psychological research has found that being asked to predict one's future actions can bring about subsequent behavior consistent with the prediction but different from what would have occurred had no prediction been made. In a 1987 study, Greenwald, Carnot, Beach, and Young induced an increase in voting behavior by means of such a “self‐prophecy” effect: Undergraduates who were asked to predict whether they would vote in an upcoming election were substantially more likely to go to the polls than those who had not been asked for a prediction. This paper reports on a replication of the Greenwald study conducted among a larger group of respondents more representative of the American electorate. No evidence was found that self‐prophecy effects increase voter turnout.

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References

1991Thinking too much: Introspection can reduce the quality of preferences and decisions.2000The Effects of Canvassing, Telephone Calls, and Direct Mail on Voter Turnout: A Field Experiment 1992The Return of the Repressed: Dissonance Theory Makes a Comeback 1980On the self-erasing nature of errors of prediction.1993Does Measuring Intent Change Behavior?1989Introspection, Attitude Change, and Attitude-Behavior Consistency: the Disruptive Effects of Explaining Why we Feel the Way we Do 1987Increasing voting behavior by asking people if they expect to vote.1956Experimental Propaganda Techniques and Voting Behavior

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