Explaining Presidential Losses in Midterm Congressional Elections

Abstract

Two sets of theories attempt to explain the variance in the loss of seats in the House of Representatives by the President's party in midterm elections. The first set of theories, the coattails/surge-and-decline theories, explains midterm losses as a function of the previous presidential election. The second set of theories, the popularity/economy theories, explains midterm losses as a response to conditions at the time of the midterm. This research examines both theories' ability to explain midterm seat losses in the same set of midterm elections. The findings indicate that there is some merit to both theories, that the economy does not have the impact suggested by previous research, that the coattails/surge-and-decline theories offer somewhat more accurate predictions of seat losses and that an integrated model predicts more accurately than either individual model. In effect, the two sets of theories ought to be considered as being complimentary rather than purely competitive. The integrated model is also used to examine differences between a President's first and second midterm, to explain seat losses in the 1982 midterm, and to predict losses for the 1986 midterm.

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