Risk theory in a Markovian environment

Abstract

We consider risk processes t t⩾0 with the property that the rate β of the Poisson arrival process and the distribution of B of the claim sizes are not fixed in time but depend on the state of an underlying Markov jump process {Zt } t⩾0 such that β=β i and B=Bi when Zt=i . A variety of methods, including approximations, simulation and numerical methods, for assessing the values of the ruin probabilities are studied and in particular we look at the Cramér-Lundberg approximation and diffusion approximations with correction terms. The mathematical framework is Markov-modulated random walks in discrete and continuous time, and in particular Wiener-Hopf factorisation problems and conjugate distributions (Esscher transforms) are involved.

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