Article1998

Testing the conditional CAPM using multivariate GARCH-M

62 citations0/0 files storedApplied Financial Economics

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Financial Markets and Investment Strategies Stochastic processes and financial applications Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling

Abstract

The relation between expected return and time varying risk on the Swedish stock market for the period 1977 to 1990 is examined. Using a parsimonious multivariate GARCH-M model, the conditional Sharpe - Lintner - Mossin CAPM is tested against six alternative hypotheses, including the zero-beta version of CAPM, a conditional residual risk model, and models which nest the international CAPM and the consumption CAPM. The hypotheses are tested using beta-ranked, size-ranked, and industry-sorted portfolios. The estimates for the null hypothesis show that the price of risk is positive and significant for all portfolio groupings. Using robust LM-tests, the null hypothesis cannot be rejected in favour of any of the alternative hypotheses. In contrast to international evidence, where the traditional CAPM very often is rejected in favour of asset pricing models that rely on more general measures of risk, these results provide strong support for the Sharpe - Lintner - Mossin version of the conditional CAPM.

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1986Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity 1982Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation 1964CAPITAL ASSET PRICES: A THEORY OF MARKET EQUILIBRIUM UNDER CONDITIONS OF RISK*1991Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach 1993On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks 1965The Valuation of Risk Assets and the Selection of Risky Investments in Stock Portfolios and Capital Budgets 1975THE VALUATION OF RISK ASSETS AND THE SELECTION OF RISKY INVESTMENTS IN STOCK PORTFOLIOS AND CAPITAL BUDGETS**This paper is another in a series of interrelated theoretical and statistical studies of corporate financial and investment policies being made under grants from the Rockefeller Foundation, and more recently the Ford Foundation, to the Harvard Business School. The generous support for this work is most gratefully acknowledged. The author is also much indebted to his colleagues Professors Bishop, Christenson, Kahr, Raiffa, and (especially) Schlaifer, for extensive discussion and commentary on an earlier draft of this paper; but responsibility for any errors or imperfections remains strictly his own.[Professor Sharpe's paper, “Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions of Risk” (Journal of Finance, September 1964) appeared after this paper was in final form and on its way to the printers. My first section, which parallels the first half of his paper (with corresponding conclusions), sets the algebraic framework for sections II, III and VI, (which have no counterpart in his paper) and for section IV on the equilibrium prices of risk assets, concerning which our results differ significantly for reasons which will be explored elsewhere. Sharpe does not take up the capital budgeting problem developed in section V below.]

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