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Base Rates in Bayesian Inference: Signal Detection Analysis of the Cab Problem
8 references·16 citing·35 second hop
Base Rates in Bayesian Inference: Signal Detection Analysis of the Cab Problem (1983)Base Rates in Bayesian Inference: Signal …Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. (1984)Judgment Under Uncertainty: H…Evidential impact of base rates (1982)Evidential impact of base rat…Causal schemas in judgments under uncertainty (1982)Causal schemas in judgments u…The base-rate fallacy in probability judgments (1980)The base-rate fallacy in prob…Source credibility in social judgment: Bias, expertise, and the judge's point of view. (1979)Source credibility in social …Dominance of accuracy information and neglect of base rates in probability estimation (1976)Dominance of accuracy informa…Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)Judgment under Uncertainty: H…On the psychology of prediction. (1973)On the psychology of predicti…The rationality of informal argumentation: A Bayesian approach to reasoning fallacies. (2007)The rationality of informal a…Towards a balanced social psychology: Causes, consequences, and cures for the problem-seeking approach to social behavior and cognition (2004)Towards a balanced social psy…When Predictions Fail: The Dilemma of Unrealistic Optimism (2002)When Predictions Fail: The Di…The Availability Heuristic Revisited: Ease of Recall and Content of Recall as Distinct Sources of Information (2002)The Availability Heuristic Re…Sympathetic Magical Thinking: The Contagion and Similarity “Heuristics” (2002)Sympathetic Magical Thinking:…Norm Theory: Comparing Reality to Its Alternatives (2002)Norm Theory: Comparing Realit…Models of ecological rationality: The recognition heuristic. (2002)Models of ecological rational…Compatibility Effects in Judgment and Choice (2002)Compatibility Effects in Judg…Ambiguity and Self-Evaluation: The Role of Idiosyncratic Trait Definitions in Self-Serving Assessments of Ability (2002)Ambiguity and Self-Evaluation…Discrepancies Between Normative and Descriptive Models of Decision Making and the Understanding/Acceptance Principle (1999)Discrepancies Between Normati…How alike is it versus how likely is it: A disjunction fallacy in probability judgments. (1993)How alike is it versus how li…From tools to theories: A heuristic of discovery in cognitive psychology. (1991)From tools to theories: A heu…Ambiguity and self-evaluation: The role of idiosyncratic trait definitions in self-serving assessments of ability. (1989)Ambiguity and self-evaluation…Norm theory: Comparing reality to its alternatives. (1986)Norm theory: Comparing realit…Assessing uncertainty in physical constants (1986)Assessing uncertainty in phys…Bayesian inference: Combining base rates with opinions of sources who vary in credibility. (1983)Bayesian inference: Combining…On the study of statistical intuitions (1982)The Noise Trader Approach to Finance (1990)Volume, Volatility, Price, and Profit When All Traders Are Above Average (1998)Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness (1972)Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability (1973)The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice (1981)Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk (1988)Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty (1992)Belief in the law of small numbers. (1971)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974)Telling more than we can know: Verbal reports on mental processes. (1977)An Inventory for Measuring Depression (1961)Belief, Attitude, Intention and Behavior: An Introduction to Theory and Research (1975)Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk (1979)A Continuum of Impression Formation, from Category-Based to Individuating Processes: Influences of Information and Motivation on Attention and Interpretation (1990)Well-being : the foundations of hedonic psychology (1999)Core affect and the psychological construction of emotion. (2003)Judged frequency of lethal events. (1978)Conservatism in human information processing (1982)The psychology of interpersonal relations. (1958)The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (1963)Comorbidity: A network perspective (2010)Moving beyond multiple regression analysis to algorithms: Calling for adoption of a paradigm shift from symmetric to asymmetric thinking in data analysis and crafting theory (2013)Fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA): Guidelines for research practice in Information Systems and marketing (2021)The theory of planned behavior (1991)Personal contact, individuation, and the better-than-average effect. (1995)Explaining Bargaining Impasse: The Role of Self-Serving Biases (1997)Self-Efficacy: The Exercise of Control (1999)Unrealistic optimism about future life events. (1980)The role of theories in conceptual coherence. (1985)CURRENT RESEARCH IN SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY (1996)The Bias Blind Spot: Perceptions of Bias in Self Versus Others (2002)Motivational and Emotional Aspects of the Self (2006)Those Who Understand: Knowledge Growth in Teaching (1986)The weirdest people in the world? (2010)
this work references cited by second hop

References

  • 1975Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases22,647 cited
  • 1973On the psychology of prediction.6,201 cited
  • 1984Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.5,656 cited
  • 1980The base-rate fallacy in probability judgments1,184 cited
  • 1982Causal schemas in judgments under uncertainty613 cited
  • 1982Evidential impact of base rates591 cited
  • 1979Source credibility in social judgment: Bias, expertise, and the judge's point of view.509 cited
  • 1976Dominance of accuracy information and neglect of base rates in probability estimation372 cited

Cited by

  • 1986Norm theory: Comparing reality to its alternatives.3,027 cited
  • 1989Ambiguity and self-evaluation: The role of idiosyncratic trait definitions in self-serving assessments of ability.758 cited
  • 2002Ambiguity and Self-Evaluation: The Role of Idiosyncratic Trait Definitions in Self-Serving Assessments of Ability678 cited
  • 1991From tools to theories: A heuristic of discovery in cognitive psychology.634 cited
  • 2004Towards a balanced social psychology: Causes, consequences, and cures for the problem-seeking approach to social behavior and cognition372 cited
  • 1986Assessing uncertainty in physical constants320 cited

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2007
The rationality of informal argumentation: A Bayesian approach to reasoning fallacies.
311 cited
  • 2002Norm Theory: Comparing Reality to Its Alternatives289 cited
  • 1983Bayesian inference: Combining base rates with opinions of sources who vary in credibility.253 cited
  • 2002Models of ecological rationality: The recognition heuristic.238 cited
  • 2002Compatibility Effects in Judgment and Choice232 cited
  • 1999Discrepancies Between Normative and Descriptive Models of Decision Making and the Understanding/Acceptance Principle217 cited
  • 2002The Availability Heuristic Revisited: Ease of Recall and Content of Recall as Distinct Sources of Information212 cited
  • 2002When Predictions Fail: The Dilemma of Unrealistic Optimism209 cited
  • 2002Sympathetic Magical Thinking: The Contagion and Similarity “Heuristics”191 cited
  • 1993How alike is it versus how likely is it: A disjunction fallacy in probability judgments.188 cited