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Who Wins and Who Loses? Public Transfer Accounts for US Generations Born 1850 to 2090

Antoine Bommier · Ronald Demos Lee · Timothy Miller · Stéphane Zuber

42 citations0/0 files storedPopulation and Development Review

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Financial Literacy, Pension, Retirement Analysis Retirement, Disability, and Employment Intergenerational and Educational Inequality Studies

Abstract

Public transfer programs in industrial nations are thought to benefit the elderly through pension and health care programs at the expense of the young and future generations. However, this intergenerational picture changes if public education is also considered as a transfer program. We calculate the net present value (NPV) of benefits received minus taxes paid for US generations born 1850 to 2090. Surprisingly, all generations 1950 to 2050 are net gainers, while many current elderly are losers. Windfall gains from starting Social Security and Medicare partially offset windfall losses from starting public education, roughly consistent with the Becker-Murphy theory.

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References

1992Modeling and Forecasting U. S. Mortality 2015Integrated Public Use Microdata Series 1966The Social Insurance Paradox 2007Historical Statistics of the United States, Millennial Edition 1949Historical Statistics of the United States, 1789-1945 1988The Family and the State 1991Generational Accounts: A Meaningful Alternative to Deficit Accounting 1999Generational Accounting around the World

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2006A re-examination of welfare states and inequality in rich nations: How in-kind transfers and indirect taxes change the story 2014Generational Inequalities and Welfare Regimes 2011Fiscal Externalities of Becoming a Parent 2021Optimal intergenerational transfers: Public education and pensions 2017Full Generational Accounts: What Do We Give to the Next Generation?

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