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Real Time, Time Series Forecasting of Inter- and Intra-State Political Conflict
16 references·5 citing·44 second hop
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  • 1998Evaluating Interval Forecasts2,689 cited
  • 2007Probabilistic Forecasts, Calibration and Sharpness1,774 cited
  • 1998Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management1,452 cited
  • 1998Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models1,011 cited
  • 2004Prediction Markets886 cited
  • 2009A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability861 cited
  • 1997Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressions: Modelling, Statistical Inference, and Application to Business Cycle Analysis761 cited
  • 1992War and Reason590 cited
  • 1997Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressions583 cited
  • 2000Intelligence: from secrets to policy578 cited
  • 19968 Forecast evaluation and combination536 cited
  • 1992War and Reason483 cited
  • 2003The Democratic Peace and Territorial Conflict in the Twentieth Century453 cited
  • 2006The European Union Decides427 cited
  • 1999Multivariate Density Forecast Evaluation and Calibration In Financial Risk Management: High-Frequency Returns on Foreign Exchange343 cited
  • 1999State Failure Task Force Report: Phase II Findings

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Cited by

  • 2017Predicting armed conflict: Time to adjust our expectations?156 cited
  • 2015Improving Governance for the Post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals: Scenario Forecasting the Next 50years131 cited
  • 2017Reading Between the Lines: Prediction of Political Violence Using Newspaper Text119 cited
  • 2014No! Formal Theory, Causal Inference, and Big Data Are Not Contradictory Trends in Political Science75 cited
  • 2014'Beating the news' with EMBERS: Forecasting Civil Unrest using Open Source Indicators49 cited