Article2017

Predicting armed conflict: Time to adjust our expectations?

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Political Conflict and Governance Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence Peacebuilding and International Security

Abstract

This Essay provides an introduction to the general challenges of predicting political violence, particularly compared with predicting other types of events (such as earthquakes). What is possible? What is less realistic? We aim to debunk myths about predicting violence, as well as to illustrate the substantial progress in this field.

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References

2010To Explain or to Predict?2016Global Inequality 2010The perils of policy by p-value: Predicting civil conflicts 1997Emergent Actors in World Politics 2015A Closer Look at Reporting Bias in Conflict Event Data 2010Crisis Early Warning and Decision Support: Contemporary Approaches and Thoughts on Future Research 2000Improving Quantitative Studies of International Conflict: A Conjecture 2015Comparing Random Forest with Logistic Regression for Predicting Class-Imbalanced Civil War Onset Data

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