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Predicting armed conflict: Time to adjust our expectations?
14 references·1 citing·45 second hop
Predicting armed conflict: Time to adjust our expectations? (2017)Predicting armed conflict: Time to adjust…Bringing probability judgments into policy debates via forecasting tournaments (2017)Bringing probability judgment…Growing pains for global monitoring of societal events (2016)Growing pains for global moni…Global Inequality (2016)Global InequalityForecasting civil conflict along the shared socioeconomic pathways (2016)Forecasting civil conflict al…Comparing Random Forest with Logistic Regression for Predicting Class-Imbalanced Civil War Onset Data (2015)Comparing Random Forest with …A Closer Look at Reporting Bias in Conflict Event Data (2015)A Closer Look at Reporting Bi…Real Time, Time Series Forecasting of Inter- and Intra-State Political Conflict (2011)Real Time, Time Series Foreca…To Explain or to Predict? (2010)To Explain or to Predict?The perils of policy by p-value: Predicting civil conflicts (2010)The perils of policy by p-val…Predicting Conflict in Space and Time (2010)Predicting Conflict in Space …Crisis Early Warning and Decision Support: Contemporary Approaches and Thoughts on Future Research (2010)Crisis Early Warning and Deci…Global Pattern Formation and Ethnic/Cultural Violence (2007)Global Pattern Formation and …Improving Quantitative Studies of International Conflict: A Conjecture (2000)Improving Quantitative Studie…Emergent Actors in World Politics (1997)Emergent Actors in World Poli…How Cross-Validation Can Go Wrong and What to Do About It (2018)How Cross-Validation Can Go W…The Structure of Foreign News (1965)Introducing ACLED: An Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (2010)Introducing the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset (2013)Protection Through Presence: UN Peacekeeping and the Costs of Targeting Civilians (2018)Repression Technology: Internet Accessibility and State Violence (2020)The digital repression of social movements, protest, and activism: A synthetic review (2022)Africa's Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions (1997)The clash of civilizations and the remaking of world order (1997)Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War (2003)Common ecology quantifies human insurgency (2009)Contested Boundaries: Explaining Where Ethnoracial Diversity Provokes Neighborhood Conflict (2016)Formation of raiding parties for intergroup violence is mediated by social network structure (2016)Ethnic Groups in Conflict. (1986)Greed and grievance in civil war (2004)Whither the weather? Climate change and conflict (2012)An Empirical Evaluation of Explanations for State Repression (2014)Civil War as State-Making: Strategic Governance in Civil War (2017)The Logic of Comparative Social Inquiry. (1971)Political Marginalization, Climate Change, and Conflict in African Sahel States (2010)Seven deadly sins of contemporary quantitative political analysis (2013)'Beating the news' with EMBERS (2014)Designing Social Inquiry (1994)What Can We Learn from Predictive Modeling? (2017)ViEWS: A political violence early-warning system (2019)A Robustness Test Protocol for Applied QCA: Theory and R Software Application (2021)World Development indicators (2015)Multi-method evidence for when and how climate-related disasters contribute to armed conflict risk (2020)IPCC emission scenarios: How did critiques affect their quality and relevance 1990–2022? (2022)Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods (1969)Specification Tests in Econometrics (1978)Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds (1993)An updated and expanded assessment of PLS-SEM in information systems research (2017)When to use and how to report the results of PLS-SEM (2018)Predictive model assessment in PLS-SEM: guidelines for using PLSpredict (2019)Normative and Structural Causes of Democratic Peace, 1946–1986 (1993)Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1816–1992: Rationale, Coding Rules, and Empirical Patterns (1996)Taking Time Seriously: Time-Series-Cross-Section Analysis with a Binary Dependent Variable (1998)Population and Security: How Demographic Change Can Lead to Violent Conflict (2002)Can Structural Conditions Explain the Onset of Nonviolent Uprisings? (2015)ALIGNING ONTOLOGY AND METHODOLOGY IN COMPARATIVE POLITICS (2003)War and State Formation in Ancient China and Early Modern Europe (2005)Beyond Fractionalization: Mapping Ethnicity onto Nationalist Insurgencies (2007)The Role of Population in Economic Growth (2017)Trump and the Populist Authoritarian Parties: The Silent Revolution in Reverse (2017)Global warming has increased global economic inequality (2019)
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References

  • 2010To Explain or to Predict?2,974 cited
  • 2016Global Inequality1,681 cited
  • 2010The perils of policy by p-value: Predicting civil conflicts476 cited
  • 1997Emergent Actors in World Politics411 cited
  • 2015A Closer Look at Reporting Bias in Conflict Event Data294 cited
  • 2010Crisis Early Warning and Decision Support: Contemporary Approaches and Thoughts on Future Research268 cited
  • 2000Improving Quantitative Studies of International Conflict: A Conjecture257 cited
  • 2015Comparing Random Forest with Logistic Regression for Predicting Class-Imbalanced Civil War Onset Data234 cited
  • 2007Global Pattern Formation and Ethnic/Cultural Violence230 cited
  • 2016Forecasting civil conflict along the shared socioeconomic pathways169 cited
  • 2011Real Time, Time Series Forecasting of Inter- and Intra-State Political Conflict167 cited
  • 2010Predicting Conflict in Space and Time163 cited
  • 2016Growing pains for global monitoring of societal events111 cited
  • 2017Bringing probability judgments into policy debates via forecasting tournaments67 cited

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  • 2018How Cross-Validation Can Go Wrong and What to Do About It

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40 cited