One Swallow Doesn't Make a Summer: A Comment on Zacharias Maniadis,

Abstract

In their article “One Swallow Doesn’t Make a Summer: New Evidence on Anchoring Effects,” Zacharias Maniadis, Fabio Tufano, and John List—hereafter, MTL—claim that their “framework highlights that, at least in principle, the decision about whether to call a finding noteworthy, or deserving of great attention, should be based on the estimated probability that the finding represents a true association, which follows directly from the observed p-value, the power of the design, the prior probability of the hypothesis, and the tolerance for false positives” (MTL 2014, 278). MTL’s article is intended to provide “insights into the mechanics of proper inference” (ibid.). Although I agree with most of the conclusions in MTL (2014), in this comment I raise some important caveats.

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