Three Roads to Commitment: A Trimodal Theory of Decision Making

Abstract

Researchers in different paradigms have concentrated on different narrow slices of the decision making domain, such as choice in classical decision theory or recognition in naturalistic research. We distill a more inclusive conception of decisions as dynamic, graded commitments to action at different levels of specificity and temporal scope. We identify three prototypical pathways to commitment –Matching, Reassessment, and Choice – which differ in their starting points (i.e., initially active commitments), the questions they use to frame planning (about appropriateness, efficiency, and reliability, respectively), and the normative backing they confer on action. The framework identifies three dimensions of action uncertainty: issues relevant in each mode, types or patterns of uncertainty about those issues, and methods used to handle it. It provides an ecological approach to action uncertainty, as a decision maker’s distance (in effort and time) from actionable commitment, and draws some implications for the management of time. The three modes, crossed with different levels of action uncertainty, help organize the field of decision making research and define a space of cognitive possibilities to which decision aids and training should adapt.

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