Globalization and Its (Dis-)Content: Trade Shocks and Voting Behavior

Christian Dippel · Robert Gold · Stephan Heblich

166 citations0/0 files storedNational Bureau of Economic Research

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Populism, Right-Wing Movements Electoral Systems and Political Participation Global trade and economics

Abstract

We identify the causal effect of trade-integration with China and Eastern Europe on voting in Germany from 1987 to 2009.Looking at the entire political spectrum, we find that only extreme-right parties respond significantly to trade integration.Their vote share increases with import competition and decreases with export access opportunities.We unpack mechanisms using reduced form evidence and a causal mediation analysis.Two-thirds of the total effect of trade integration on voting appears to be driven by observable labor market adjustments, primarily changes in manufacturing employment.These results are mirrored in an individual-level analysis in the German Socioeconomic Panel.

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References

2001Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data 1992Changes in Relative Wages, 1963-1987: Supply and Demand Factors 2013The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States 2007The German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) - Scope, Evolution and Enhancements 2013Understanding the Mechanisms Through Which an Influential Early Childhood Program Boosted Adult Outcomes 2016The Surprisingly Swift Decline of US Manufacturing Employment 2001Urban Decline and Durable Housing 2014Trade Adjustment: Worker-Level Evidence *

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