Article1987

LONG-RUN VEHICLE TRAVEL PREDICTION FROM DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS

15 citations0/0 files storedTransportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board

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Transportation Planning and Optimization Transportation Systems and Logistics Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies

Abstract

A simple method is presented for long-run forecasting of highway vehicle miles of travel (VMT) based on the assumption that travel is fundamentally time-constrained. Demographic projections by age cohort and sex are used to produce vehicle travel forecasts that vary according to assumptions about license-holding rates and average miles per licensed driver by age and sex. With constant vehicle miles per driver, 2020 forecasts range from 1.93 to 2.30 trillion vehicle-mi. The greatest potential for increased vehicle travel appears to depend on whether rates of travel per female licensed driver will begin to approach those of men. Equal rates would boost 2020 VMT to 2.84 trillion vehicle-mi.

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1990THINGS WON'T GET A LOT WORSE: THE FUTURE OF U.S. TRAFFIC CONGESTION 2014Peak Travel and the Decoupling of Vehicle Travel from the Economy 2017Estimation and Prediction of Statewide Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) by Highway Category and Vehicle Classification 2005Development of an alternative approach to estimate vehicle miles traveled using a classification procedure

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