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The authors sought to establish that airports do not have catchment areas as such and that air travelers make choices among available airports when they elect to travel. A model that describes this choice mechanism will permit airport systems to be planned on a more reliable basis. This work develops a model for passengers in central England based on data collected in 1975 and 1978 by the Civil Aviation Authority. The model chosen was one of discrete behavioral choice; the particular form that was successfully calibrated was the multinomial logit model. For business and inclusive tour travel, the most important variables of choice were access time to the airport and frequency to the chosen destination. For domestic and leisure trips there were three factors: air fare, access time, and frequency of available flights, in that order of importance. The calibrated model showed high agreement between observed and predicted market shares. The model was also found to be transferable to data from a separate survey of air travel from the London area. The model is expected to be of use to airport authorities and airlines in planning and determining business strategy in the increasingly competitive deregulated environment of air transport.
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