Risk measures in engineering design under uncertainty

Abstract

Engineering decisions are made under substantial uncertainty about current and future system cost and response. A risk-neutral decision maker would rely on expected values when comparing designs, while a risk-averse decision maker might adopt nonlinear utility functions or failure probability criteria. The paper shows that these models for making decisions fall within a framework of risk measures that includes many other possibilities. The paper provides an overview of the framework, highlights benefits derived from certain risk measures, and gives a truss design example.

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