Development of tour packages through spatio-temporal modelling of tourist movements

Abstract

An ideal tour package should consist of itinerary elements such as the sequence of tourist attractions with the scheduled arrival times and visiting durations at each attraction, specific to each tourist according to their preferences and characteristics. Although seen as a determining factor for tourists’ satisfaction by tour operators, a tour package is described as one of the fundamental, taken-for-granted symbols of the tourism industry. Conventionally, tour operators choose just some of a number of travel products, for instance, several places to visit or a transportation mode, and put them into a tour package without sufficiently understanding both the potential and actual needs of the tourists themselves. Furthermore, some tour operators have conflicting motives in producing tour packages such as adding many shopping activities with the intention of maximising their profits. This research involves outlining several methodologies for designing tour packages. The methodologies are for personalised scheduling, activity planning and market segmentation, that have been developed by integrating tourists’ spatio-temporal movements and their characteristics. The design of a tour package is directly linked to tourist market needs and demands using the Personalised Scheduling Method. Semi-Markov and scheduling processes are employed to produce an itinerary, personalised to a specific combination of characteristics for tourists. Other elements of a tour package such as route, activities and budget can be added to the itinerary to complete the tour package design process. The Activity Planning Method uses a Probability Density Function to estimate tourists’ arrival times and visiting durations for planning the timing of activities at each attraction. The Market Segmentation Method applies the Expectation-Maximisation Algorithm to produce target markets of tour package products which are itineraries, attractions and activities based on tourists’ characteristics. A case study of Phillip Island, Victoria, Australia was undertaken to implement and evaluate each method developed. A survey was conducted to gather data of tourists’ spatio-temporal movements and their characteristics. The Personalised Scheduling Method was implemented using the spatio-temporal movement dataset of female and

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