TAX AMNESTIES AND COMPLIANCE IN THE LONG RUN: A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

James Robert Alm · William C. Beck

125 citations0/0 files storedNational Tax Journal

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Taxation and Compliance Studies Economic and Fiscal Studies Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth

Abstract

This paper discusses time series methods that can be used to examine the long run effects of a tax amnesty, and applies these methods to the 1985 Colorado amnesty. Several time series models are estimated: simple ordinary least squares time trend models, univariate time series models, and multivariate intervention models. The empirical results from all models strongly indicate that the Colorado amnesty had no long run impact on either the level or the trend of tax collections. This result suggests that a typical amnesty seems unlikely to generate significant new revenues, but also seems unlikely to compromise voluntary compliance.

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1974Time series analysis and simultaneous equation econometric models 1991The desirability of a permanent tax amnesty

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2019Tax Compliance and Administration 2015Voluntary disclosure of evaded taxes — Increasing revenue, or increasing incentives to evade?2005Tax Amnesties and Political Participation 2007The Revenue Impact of Repeated Tax Amnesties 2019How to Achieve Tax Compliance by the Wealthy: A Review of the Literature and Agenda for Policy 2003Institutions, Paradigms, and Tax Evasion in Developing and Transition Countries 2011Tax Morale, Tax Evasion and the Shadow Economy 2009Do Tax Amnesties Work? The Revenue Effects of Tax Amnesties During the Transition in the Russian Federation

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