The First Seven Years of the Political Life Cycle

Abstract

One of the most noteworthy characteristics of American elections is the low turnout of young people. Hypotheses purporting to explain this phenomenon focus on life-cycle transitions that define adulthood, like marriage or leaving school. For a variety of reasons that we explain, previous research has failed to test these propositions. We identify six such adult roles and estimate their effects on turnout of young citizens. We find that most of these transitions do not enhance the turnout of the young. iN 4 ost Americans reaching voting age fail to take advantage of their first opportunities to participate in a presidential election. In v a g 1996, for example, votes were cast by just 40 percent of citizens aged 18 to 24, compared to 78 percent of people in their sixties, the peak decade for turnout.1 Political scientists seeking to explain why turnout rises with age usually rely on hypotheses implicitly drawn from a theory that identifies transitions in the early adult life cycle and hypothesizes that they promote turnout. We elaborate this theory of adult-roles (Wolfinger and Rosenstone 1980, 55-58) and then evaluate it by subjecting its assumptions and predictions to empirical verification.

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