ESTIMATING THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE RETURNING HOME ON FOOT UNDER THE TOKYO METROPOLITAN GOVERNMENT ORDINANCE

Toshihiro Osaragi

6 citations0/0 files storedJournal of Architecture and Planning (Transactions of AIJ)

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Earthquake and Disaster Impact Studies Disaster Management and Resilience Evacuation and Crowd Dynamics

Abstract

The Tokyo Metropolitan Government enforced an "Ordinance for Comprehensively Promoting Measures for Stranded Persons" on April 1st, 2013. In this paper, we investigate people's behavior after a large earthquake, which varies according to their personal attributes and various conditions, through a questionnaire survey. Next, we construct a model describing the people's decision-making to return home or stay at their work places, by a nested logit model. Finally we estimate the number of people returning home on foot after a large earthquake, and evaluate whether the ordinance can reduce the number of such people in the Tokyo metropolitan area.

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2008MODELING OF DECISION MAKING AND BEHAVIOR FOR RETURNING HOME AFTER A DEVASTATING EARTHQUAKE

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