Historical Trends in Great Power War, 1495-1975

Abstract

The hypothesis that war between the Great Powers is diminishing in frequency but increasing in seriousness is tested for the last five centuries of the modern Great Power system. We define this system, establish its origins in 1495, identify its membership, operationalize and identify its wars, measure these wars along several key dimensions, and analyze the historical trends along each dimension. It is found that the frequency of Great Power war has been diminishing rapidly from the sixteenth century to the nineteenth century, with a slight upturn in the twentieth century. The Great Power wars that do occur, however, have become more serious along every dimension except duration, which has remained unchanged. They have been increasing in extent (number of belligerent Powers), severity (battle-deaths), intensity (battle-deaths per capita), concentration (battle-deaths per nation-year of war), and, to a certain degree, magnitude (nation-years). These trends are explained in terms of technological innovation, increasing interdependence of the modern Great Power security system, increasing rationalization and centralization of military power under the state, popularization of war through the nation in arms, emergence of a peacetime military establishment directed by professionals, and total mobilization of society for the enhancement of the military power of the state.

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