A Retrospective Analysis of Technology Forecasting

Abstract

Private and public organizations use forecasts to inform a number of decisions, including decisions about product development, competition, and technology investments. We evaluated technological forecasts to determine how forecast methodology and eight other attributes influence accuracy. We found that, of the nine attributes assessed, only forecast methodology and time horizon had a statistically significant influence on accuracy. Forecasts using quantitative methods were more accurate than other forecasting methods and forecasts predicting shorter time horizons were more accurate that those predicting longer time horizons.

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