Dynamic Models of Shopping Behaviour: Testing the Linear Learning Model and Some Alternatives

Abstract

Stochastic process models are identified as a suitable framework within which to examine dynamic consumer choice behaviour and to test the assumptions which underlie other simple behavioural models. A distinction is drawn between choice series and renewal series and the concepts of heterogeneity, non-stationarity and feedback are introduced. Some empirical problems in the testing of stochastic process models are discussed and illustrated by reference to a study by Burnett (1977) who applied a Linear Learning Model to data of store choice behaviour from Uppsala, Sweden. Careful calibration procedures are shown to be essential for useful model testing. Failure to consider more parsimonious models led to a failure to identify the superior performance of the simple Heterogeneous Bernoulli Model. Tests of non-stationarity and heterogeneity are presented. Finally, certain reservations are expressed about the sampling procedure adopted and of the interaction between consumer ‘brand’ choice and ‘store’ choice behaviour.

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