Different Paths to Success: A Theory of Organizational Decision Making and Administrative Reliability *

Abstract

Discussions on organizational reliability have concentrated largely on structural means by which an agency can improve its performance. Agencies have two options, however, in achieving reliability objectives. An agency either may employ fewer but more reliable components in its administrative system, or it may choose to utilize less reliable components, counting on structural redundancy to increase the agency's overall reliability. The key question is when to choose one of these strategies for achieving organizational reliability rather than the other. In this article, I develop a theory explaining why agencies may choose to pursue organizational reliability using different strategies; the theory relies on Herbert Simon's distinction between programmed and nonprogrammed decision making. This theory is tested through a comparison of two case studies: NASA's pursuit of reliability in the area of manned space flight, and the drug testing process of the FDA.

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