Articlebronze2017

A Flexible Bayesian Model for Estimating Subnational Mortality

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95 citations0/0 files storedDemography

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Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management Global Cancer Incidence and Screening demographic modeling and climate adaptation

Abstract

Reliable subnational mortality estimates are essential in the study of health inequalities within a country. One of the difficulties in producing such estimates is the presence of small populations among which the stochastic variation in death counts is relatively high, and thus the underlying mortality levels are unclear. We present a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mortality at the subnational level. The model builds on characteristic age patterns in mortality curves, which are constructed using principal components from a set of reference mortality curves. Information on mortality rates are pooled across geographic space and are smoothed over time. Testing of the model shows reasonable estimates and uncertainty levels when it is applied both to simulated data that mimic U.S. counties and to real data for French départements. The model estimates have direct applications to the study of subregional health patterns and disparities.

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References

2016The Association Between Income and Life Expectancy in the United States, 2001-2014 1992Modeling and Forecasting U. S. Mortality 2002Place effects on health: how can we conceptualise, operationalise and measure them?2008The Reversal of Fortunes: Trends in County Mortality and Cross-County Mortality Disparities in the United States 2012Bayesian probabilistic population projections for all countries 2016US County-Level Trends in Mortality Rates for Major Causes of Death, 1980-2014 2011Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries 2013Bayesian Probabilistic Projections of Life Expectancy for All Countries

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