Project Planning under Uncertainty Using Scenario Analysis

Abstract

An important component of risk management relates to project schedule uncertainty. To address this issue, a scenario (i.e., macro-level approach) for modeling and analyzing projects with significant uncertainty in their network structure and/or durations of some activities is presented. This approach requires that a set of project network scenarios is able to be identified, each with an assessed probability of occurrence. These scenarios might differ according to the results of uncertain events that could occur during the course of the project, uncertain activity durations (whether independent or dependent), finite loops where repeated activities can have different durations, or a combination of these. Advantages of our approach include the use of standard methods and software, as well as greater accessibility to, and likelihood of, the use of uncertainty analysis in project planning. Several examples are used to illustrate the suggested approach.

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