Frequency learning and order effects in belief updating

Abstract

Abstract Studies on frequency processing suggest that people can process frequency information automatically and can use this information in judgement task quite accurately. This chapter examines whether order effects in belief updating tasks will disappear if the meaning of the respective pieces of information relevant for the belief updating task is acquired through the processing of frequencies of co-occurrences of events in real event sequences. First it gives a short overview on studies addressing order effects in belief updating. Then the belief-adjustment model of Hogarth and Einhorn (1992) is described. This model is used to identify situations where order effects are to be expected. Some results of studies on frequency processing are then described and finally results from a series of experiments are summarized, testing the impact of learning of frequencies on order effects in belief updating tasks.

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