Time Series Analysis of Alternative Media Effects Theories

Abstract

The necessary conditions for discriminating among direct and indirect theories of mass communication, null effects, agenda-setting, reverse effects, and reverse agendasetting theories are outlined. The conditions are tested on a nine-month series data set. Media performance is represented by daily measurements of mass media assertions and story prominence about the Concorde supersonic aircraft trial in Washington, D.C. Behavioral response is represented by daily levels of Concorde noise complaints. Time series cross-correlation analysis indicates the minimal conditions for support are present only for direct and indirect effects, agenda-setting and reverse agenda-setting theories. Interpretation of the time lag information between presumed cause and effect further limits the plausible theories to one: direct effects.

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