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This paper takes the variation between must, have to and have got to as a window through which to view changes in the modal system in Present-Day British English (1960s–1990s). The results from this study show a dramatic decrease in frequency of the core modal must and a significant increase in frequency of the semi-modal have to in the Diachronic Corpus of Present-Day Spoken English (DCPSE). Changes in the modal system affect both epistemic and root uses of must , although have to is only an active rival to root must; epistemic instances of have to (and have got to ) are rare in the corpus. We suggest that a tendency to avoid expressions of strong commitment is the cause of the decline in must . This is supported by similar falls in the frequency of should and ought found by Leech et al. (2009).
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