Estimating modal shift by introducing transit priority strategies under congested traffic using the multinomial logit model

Abstract

Researchers have been seeking approaches to persuade car users to shift to mass transit through implementing transit priority strategies. Widely used transit priority strategies include a Managed Bus Lane (MBL), transit fare discount, and an increase in parking fees. Most previous studies have focused on the implementation of a single priority strategy, which may not be sufficient enough to induce a significant shift in travel mode. This study aims to investigate the effect of multiple transit priority strategies, also known as multi-strategy, on the travel modal shift of car users. For this purpose, the effects of the three single strategies and the multi-strategy on travel modal shift were compared. A logit model was employed to estimate the choice in travel mode based on the Revealed Preference/stated Preference (RP/SP) data. The findings in this study were compared with those reported in previous studies as well. The results showed that the increase in parking fees has the most influential impact on the travel modal shift of car users, followed by the MBL. Comparatively, a transit fare discount was found to be unattractive for car users to make a change to mass transit. On the other hand, the multi-strategy showed remarkably higher effects on the travel modal shift of car users, but is not a simple superposition of the three single strategies. Additionally, the estimated probability of the shift in transit sharing rate based on RP/SP data was found to be much higher than the actual sharing rate, indicating that the SP data may overestimate the respondents’ actual choice.

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