Global distribution of revenue loss from tax avoidance: Re-estimation and country results

Alex Cobham · Petr Jánský

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Corporate Taxation and Avoidance Economic and Fiscal Studies Taxation and Compliance Studies

Abstract

International corporate tax is an important source of government revenue, especially in lower-income countries. An important recent study of the scale of this problem was carried out by International Monetary Fund researchers Ernesto Crivelli, Ruud De Mooij, and Michael Keen. We first re-estimate their innovative model, and then explore the effects of introducing higher-quality revenue data from the ICTD–WIDER Government Revenue Database. Whereas Crivelli et al. report results for two country groups only, we present country-level results to make the most detailed estimates available. Our findings support a somewhat lower estimate of global revenue losses of around US$500 billion annually and indicate that the greatest intensity of losses occurs in low- and lower middle-income countries, and across sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and South Asia.

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References

2014Taxing across Borders: Tracking Personal Wealth and Corporate Profits 2009Tax Havens: International Tax Avoidance and Evasion 2015THE EFFECT OF PROFIT SHIFTING ON THE CORPORATE TAX BASE IN THE UNITED STATES AND BEYOND 2014The ICTD Government Revenue Dataset 2015Base Erosion, Profit Shifting and Developing Countries 2015The Financial Secrecy Index: Shedding New Light on the Geography of Secrecy 2013A partial race to the bottom: corporate tax developments in emerging and developing economies 2015Base Erosion, Profit Shifting and Developing Countries

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