Analysing the macroeconomic drivers of stock market development in the Philippines

Sin‐Yu Ho · Nicholas Mbaya Odhiambo

40 citations0/0 files storedCogent Economics & Finance

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Abstract

This paper analyses the macroeconomic drivers of stock market development in the Philippines during the period 2001Q4–2016Q4. In particular, the paper examines the impact of banking sector development, inflation rate, exchange rate, economic growth, trade openness and stock market liquidity on the development of the Philippine stock market. Theoretical and empirical literature reveals diverse views on the relationship between each determinant and stock market development. In addition, the Philippine stock market has experienced remarkable growth in recent decades. However, there is no similar study on this country in the literature. The paper, therefore, enriches the literature by investigating the macroeconomic drivers of stock market development in the Philippines using the ARDL bounds testing procedure. The results show that trade openness has had a negative impact on Philippine stock market development in the long run, whereas banking sector development and the exchange rate have had positive impacts on the development of the Philippine stock market in the short run. These findings are robust to alternative specifications of the model.

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References

2001Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships 1964CAPITAL ASSET PRICES: A THEORY OF MARKET EQUILIBRIUM UNDER CONDITIONS OF RISK*1965The Behavior of Stock-Market Prices 1973Theory of Rational Option Pricing 1965The Valuation of Risk Assets and the Selection of Risky Investments in Stock Portfolios and Capital Budgets 2005Theory of rational option pricing 1976The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing 1975THE VALUATION OF RISK ASSETS AND THE SELECTION OF RISKY INVESTMENTS IN STOCK PORTFOLIOS AND CAPITAL BUDGETS**This paper is another in a series of interrelated theoretical and statistical studies of corporate financial and investment policies being made under grants from the Rockefeller Foundation, and more recently the Ford Foundation, to the Harvard Business School. The generous support for this work is most gratefully acknowledged. The author is also much indebted to his colleagues Professors Bishop, Christenson, Kahr, Raiffa, and (especially) Schlaifer, for extensive discussion and commentary on an earlier draft of this paper; but responsibility for any errors or imperfections remains strictly his own.[Professor Sharpe's paper, “Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions of Risk” (Journal of Finance, September 1964) appeared after this paper was in final form and on its way to the printers. My first section, which parallels the first half of his paper (with corresponding conclusions), sets the algebraic framework for sections II, III and VI, (which have no counterpart in his paper) and for section IV on the equilibrium prices of risk assets, concerning which our results differ significantly for reasons which will be explored elsewhere. Sharpe does not take up the capital budgeting problem developed in section V below.]

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